2022 Emmy Predictions: Only Murders in the Building, Selena Gomez

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Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race – via Slack, of course. This week, we take a look at the comedy and consider the prospects for “Only Murders in the Building” as its second season is slated to premiere June 28.

Christopher Rosen: Hello Joyce! We’re back and while it’s nice to see the rest of the world get to my level When it comes to Matthew Goodefrom the performance of “The Offer” (FYC, forever), we’re not here to tap on my favorite limited series about the producer of 1992’s “Ladybugs.” Instead, it’s back to the laughs. We’ve typed countless words on “Ted Lasso,” “Barry” and “Hacks” this year — all three shows remain favorites in the Emmys comedy categories and are set to be big hits when nominations are announced next month. But what about the rest of the category – and is there room for a surprise? Maybe not, but let’s speculate on this vanity! I guess the two agree that “Only Murders in the Building” might be in the best position to win a major prize should one of the best shows fail. The Hulu comedy may get both guest actor awards for Jane Lynch and Nathan Laneand I could even imagine a scenario where Steve Martin sneaks and dismounts Jason Sudeikis and or Bill Hader in Best Actor. So there is Selena Gomez. She’s getting a boost this week as the show gears up for its Season 2 premiere – which, as we talked about, comes right after voting closes, so any boost she would get from the second season would only materialize if she were nominated. Best Actress is both crowded and not really crowded. I’ve got Gomez coming in but I’m not totally convinced of her ability to break through – even though she probably gave my favorite performance on the show in Season 1. But what about you, Joyce? How do you see the rest of the comedy contenders?

joyceeng: I’ve been championing “Only Murders in the Building” since the first season ended in October, so you know I’m stan. However, I don’t have Gomez at the moment, although I would like to see him. She’s great and brings more of her gloriously dry line-reading to Season 2, but I feel like the show needs to be overtaken in a huge way for her to fit into a loaded category. It seems almost everyone has ‘Only Murders’ in fourth place, behind the trio of ‘Ted Lasso’, ‘Hacks’ and ‘Barry’ – the latter two have taken a lot of oxygen recently as they aired – and I could see him behaving the same way he did in the winter: nominated in all the right places except Gomez at SAG, but not winning anything major. The season 2 release date is interesting because like you said it’s coming into that dead zone after voting and pre-nominations so it feels like they’re betting on names and wanting to focus on getting that Season 2 bump for wins. If Gomez comes in, she don’t beat John Smartbut after watching the first eight screens, she has some good material towards the end of the season, which would air around the Phase 2 vote. As for Steve Martin and Martin runs, they’re locked for names, but I think they’ll finish third and fourth because their individual support seems more or less evenly split. But since we want to bring in our girlfriend Selena, let me throw in a scenario: What if we were somewhere for a shocking snub, Elizabeth Moss, like season 3 of “The Handmaid’s Tale”? former champ Rachel Brosnahan is in second place, but “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” aired 43 years ago and 5,203 shows (those numbers are accurate).

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Christopher Rosen: I mean, you might be onto something. No disrespect to “Mrs. Maisel,” but it looks like the final season came and went without much fanfare and was summarily lost to history. If Brosnahan is snubbed, it wouldn’t be because of her performance — just more atrophy around the mark after several months out. The problem is, I don’t know who would get it instead. I got Gomez in sixth place behind Smart, Kaley CuocoBrosnahan, Sarah Lancashire and Quinta Brunson. It leaves stars like Tracee Ellis Ross and Issa Rae on the outside and while either could get away with it, I think they’d go through Gomez rather than anyone else. Let’s talk about actors: I still have Jacques Johnson for “Mins”. I have no regrets. But tell me why it won’t happen despite our shared infatuation with the shaggy star.

joyceeng: Jake Johnson deserves it and I still hope to predict it, but we both know that our beloved “Minx” wasn’t exactly a big hit. There could be inspired choices in this range, like Johnson or Nicolas Hoult Where Kayvan Novak Where Rhys Darby, but, as I mentioned, this category is enriched by familiar faces. It’s just hard for strangers and new faces on low-profile shows to break in, because voters are seemingly content to check out what they already know and who they already know. Last year people were predicting Alan Tudykbut the final field of five included William H. Macy and Kenan Thompson. I think Hader, Sudeikis, Martin and Short are on board, and it wouldn’t shock me at all if the last two slots were occupied by Anthony Andersonwho never failed for “Black-ish”, and our favorite guest last year, 11 times nominated Don Cheadle, for a show that was quietly canceled during COVID. I say this even though I have Donald Glover in, but I remain unsure how “Atlanta” will do. We’ve talked till we’re sick of how different this season is, with reduced screen time for the main cast, but it’s also a familiar face and former winner, unlike Anderson and Cheadle, who may s inspire it. To bring this back to “Only Murders,” I have to ask about a rarely discussed contestant: Amy Ryan. She would be a great guest contestant, but alas, she was in too many episodes and has to show up in support. I got her very, very early on and I can’t even remember when I dropped her, but she’s currently 10th in the ratings, down two places. Can you see her courting voters like she courted Steve Martin?

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Christopher Rosen: I don’t know about Amy. Like you said, the volume isn’t necessarily there and when voters can just check the name of a group of “SNL” stars for the last time and a few “Ted Lasso” favorites, it doesn’t there’s not a lot of room. I wanted to be an actor again, however, before I got out: what about larry david? He was last nominated in 2018 and dropped in 2020 into deeper realm – is he coming back this year? Is he just the type of actor who walks in as voters pan out on their ballots?

joyceeng: I wouldn’t even call this deep field – no shade – but the 2019 and 2020 rosters matched 5/6 and would have probably been a perfect match had Hader, the two-time defending champion, been eligible in 2020. He was replaced by Rami Youssef, who missed the previous year but was widely predicted after his Globe triumph. They Ctrl+C’d and Ctrl+V’d everyone they could as of 2019 and David was probably overlooked since “Curb Your Enthusiasm” sat out this cycle. “Curb” also didn’t get any guest actor names in 2020 after landing two in 2018, so maybe actors are above that in general. No one should be surprised if David is nominated, but I think he had a better chance of returning as the former default pick last year had the show been eligible. But since “Curb” will outlive us all, he will never run out of opportunities to come back.

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